{"id":3467,"date":"2024-04-07T09:21:13","date_gmt":"2024-04-07T02:21:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phongchongthientaitiengiang.vn\/?p=3467"},"modified":"2024-04-10T10:29:41","modified_gmt":"2024-04-10T03:29:41","slug":"enso-bieu-hien-di-thuong-viet-nam-doi-mat-loat-thien-tai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phongchongthientaitiengiang.vn\/?p=3467","title":{"rendered":"ENSO bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n d\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng, Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t lo\u1ea1t thi\u00ean tai"},"content":{"rendered":"

ENSO \u0111ang c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n d\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 kh\u00ed h\u1eadu Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

ENSO bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n d\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng<\/b><\/div>\n
ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng kh\u00ed h\u1eadu tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. ENSO bao g\u1ed3m hai pha tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c nhau l\u00e0 El Nino v\u00e0 La Nina, s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa hai pha n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ef3 2-7 n\u0103m.<\/div>\n
El Nino \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00f3ng l\u00ean d\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a l\u1edbp n\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ec3n b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c x\u00edch \u0111\u1ea1o trung t\u00e2m v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f4ng Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 8-12 th\u00e1ng (ho\u1eb7c l\u00e2u h\u01a1n), th\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n 3-4 n\u0103m\/l\u1ea7n, song c\u0169ng c\u00f3 khi d\u00e0y h\u01a1n ho\u1eb7c th\u01b0a h\u01a1n.<\/div>\n
La Nina (ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi El Nino) l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbp n\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ec3n b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c n\u00f3i tr\u00ean l\u1ea1nh \u0111i d\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng, x\u1ea3y ra v\u1edbi chu k\u1ef3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 ho\u1eb7c th\u01b0a h\u01a1n El Nino. Chu k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a La Nina th\u01b0\u1eddng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n El Nino.<\/div>\n
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T\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n El Nino, s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ee3t kh\u00f4ng kh\u00ed l\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ebd \u00edt h\u01a1n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 trung b\u00ecnh c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec1u cao h\u01a1n, m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch nhi\u1ec7t r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t h\u01a1n m\u00f9a h\u00e8, c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c ph\u00eda Nam ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n ph\u00eda B\u1eafc. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n La Nina, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 trung b\u00ecnh c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n, \u1edf ph\u00eda B\u1eafc ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n ph\u00eda Nam.<\/div>\n
El Nino th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u00e2y thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a tr\u00ean h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc, ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn 25-50% (r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 B\u1eafc Trung B\u1ed9) d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nguy c\u01a1 cao x\u1ea3y ra kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n c\u1ee5c b\u1ed9, ho\u1eb7c di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng \u1edf nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i c\u00f3 nhu c\u1ea7u d\u00f9ng n\u01b0\u1edbc nhi\u1ec1u cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 sinh ho\u1ea1t.<\/div>\n
Trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, ENSO \u0111ang c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n d\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n.<\/div>\n
\u00d4ng Nguy\u1ec5n H\u1ed3ng Sinh – Ph\u00f3 Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c \u0110\u00e0i kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n H\u1ea3i Ph\u00f2ng cho bi\u1ebft, hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng El Nino v\u00e0 La Nina \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, kh\u00ed h\u1eadu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 r\u1ea5t \u0111a d\u1ea1ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1eebng khu v\u1ef1c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00f3i tr\u00ean.<\/div>\n
Hai hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng kh\u00ed quy\u1ec3n – \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi quy m\u00f4 th\u1eddi gian gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c n\u0103m, c\u00f3 t\u00ednh chu k\u1ef3 ho\u1eb7c chu\u1ea9n chu k\u1ef3.<\/div>\n
“Trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, ENSO xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean h\u01a1n. \u1ea2nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a ENSO c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00e1c nhau t\u00f9y theo t\u1eebng khu v\u1ef1c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng ENSO kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 duy nh\u1ea5t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u00ed h\u1eadu v\u00e0 th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c nh\u01b0 kh\u00ed h\u1eadu \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/i>“, \u00f4ng Sinh nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh.<\/div>\n
L\u1ea5y v\u00ed d\u1ee5 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu do ENSO, theo Ph\u00f3 Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Trung t\u00e2m D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n H\u1ea3i Ph\u00f2ng, l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 ven bi\u1ec3n thu\u1ed9c khu v\u1ef1c \u0110\u00f4ng B\u1eafc B\u1ed9, trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, H\u1ea3i Ph\u00f2ng ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu.<\/div>\n
\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n qua nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t r\u00e9t \u0111\u1eadm, r\u00e9t h\u1ea1i k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 m\u00f9a h\u00e8 ghi nh\u1eadn cao l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. B\u00e3o v\u00e0 \u00e1p th\u1ea5p nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1edbi c\u00f9ng c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft nguy hi\u1ec3m t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n.<\/div>\n
\u00d4ng Sinh d\u1eabn ra m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh nh\u01b0 th\u00e1ng 01 n\u0103m 2016, H\u1ea3i Ph\u00f2ng ghi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ee3t r\u00e9t h\u1ea1i l\u1ecbch s\u1eed k\u00e9o d\u00e0i trong 6 ng\u00e0y t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 23 \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 28 th\u00e1ng 01 n\u0103m 2016. Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed quan tr\u1eafc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 24 th\u00e1ng 01 n\u0103m 2016 t\u1ea1i tr\u1ea1m Kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ph\u00f9 Li\u1ec5n l\u00e0 4,5 \u0111\u1ed9 C.<\/div>\n
Ng\u00e0y 03 th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m 2017, H\u1ea3i Ph\u00f2ng ghi nh\u1eadn n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t gay g\u1eaft v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 cao nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea1t ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00ean t\u1edbi 39,5 \u0111\u1ed9 C.<\/div>\n
\u0110\u00eam giao th\u1eeba n\u0103m 2020 (ng\u00e0y 24 th\u00e1ng 01 n\u0103m 2020), m\u01b0a \u0111\u00e1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u1edf v\u00f9ng n\u00fai ph\u00eda B\u1eafc t\u1eeb tr\u01b0a chi\u1ec1u, \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00eam c\u00f9ng ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 sang s\u00e1ng s\u1edbm ng\u00e0y 25 th\u00e1ng 01 n\u0103m 2020, trung du v\u00e0 ven bi\u1ec3n (trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 H\u1ea3i Ph\u00f2ng) xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u01b0a \u0111\u00e1. Sang ng\u00e0y 25 th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2020 (m\u00f9ng 1 T\u1ebft Nguy\u00ean \u0111\u00e1n), H\u1ea3i Ph\u00f2ng m\u01b0a to \u0111\u1ebfn r\u1ea5t to. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng hi\u1ebfm g\u1eb7p trong ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m m\u1edbi.<\/div>\n
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C\u00f2n theo th\u00f4ng tin t\u1eeb B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng, nh\u1eefng n\u0103m qua \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ta, c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u1ef1c \u0111oan ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn v\u1edbi c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n v\u00e0 t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n.<\/div>\n
S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u quan tr\u1eafc trong 60 n\u0103m (1958 – 2018) cho th\u1ea5y: Nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 trung b\u00ecnh n\u0103m tr\u00ean c\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 0,89 \u0111\u1ed9 C; l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a gi\u1ea3m \u1edf c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c ph\u00eda B\u1eafc t\u1eeb 1-7% v\u00e0 t\u0103ng \u1edf c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c ph\u00eda Nam t\u1eeb 6-21%; s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e1c c\u01a1n b\u00e3o m\u1ea1nh t\u0103ng; nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 ng\u00e0y cao nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t t\u0103ng.<\/div>\n
S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u quan tr\u1eafc c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y n\u00f3ng t\u0103ng \u1edf h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c; h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n gia t\u0103ng tr\u00ean ph\u1ea1m vi to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c; s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y r\u00e9t \u0111\u1eadm, r\u00e9t h\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m; m\u01b0a c\u1ef1c \u0111oan t\u0103ng; m\u1ef1c n\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ec3n trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c tr\u1ea1m ven bi\u1ec3n v\u00e0 h\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea3o t\u0103ng 2,74 mm\/n\u0103m, ri\u00eang trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1993 – 2018 t\u0103ng 3,0 mm\/n\u0103m.<\/div>\n
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2024 – n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng gay g\u1eaft, m\u01b0a b\u00e3o ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p<\/b><\/div>\n
Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a ENSO s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh thi\u00ean tai trong n\u0103m 2024 ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng El Nino n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng La Nina n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Ho\u00e0ng Ph\u00fac L\u00e2m \u2013 Ph\u00f3 Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Trung t\u00e2m D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n qu\u1ed1c gia.<\/div>\n
Theo \u00f4ng L\u00e2m, m\u00f9a h\u00e8 n\u0103m nay, c\u00e1c t\u1ec9nh, th\u00e0nh tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c x\u1ea3y ra n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng v\u00e0 n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng gay g\u1eaft. Tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng \u1edf B\u1eafc B\u1ed9 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5, th\u00e1ng 6, khu v\u1ef1c Trung B\u1ed9 n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i sang th\u00e1ng 7, th\u00e1ng 8.<\/div>\n
Nam B\u1ed9 hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111ang x\u1ea3y ra n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 cao \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y di\u1ec5n ra trong th\u00e1ng 3, th\u00e1ng 4. N\u1eafng n\u00f3ng t\u1ea1i Nam B\u1ed9, khu v\u1ef1c T\u00e2y B\u1eafc B\u1eafc B\u1ed9 v\u00e0 Trung B\u1ed9 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1edbm v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n, gay g\u1eaft so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m.<\/div>\n
Theo Ph\u00f3 Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Trung t\u00e2m D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n qu\u1ed1c gia, n\u0103m 2024, t\u1eeb kho\u1ea3ng cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 6, m\u00f9a b\u00e3o tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u. M\u00f9a b\u00e3o n\u0103m nay s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a pha La Nina. Do \u0111\u00f3, b\u00e3o s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m (t\u1eeb kho\u1ea3ng th\u00e1ng 9 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 11).<\/div>\n
C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u00e3o t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m th\u00ec m\u01b0a l\u1edbn c\u0169ng s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra nhi\u1ec1u \u1edf Trung B\u1ed9, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t Trung v\u00e0 Nam Trung B\u1ed9.<\/div>\n
V\u1edbi k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n La Nina xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n, ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nh\u01b0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn n\u01b0\u1edbc ta v\u00e0o \u0111\u00fang th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 m\u01b0a, b\u00e3o t\u1eadp trung \u1edf Trung B\u1ed9 n\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u00f9a b\u00e3o, m\u01b0a, l\u0169 trong n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2024 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i l\u01b0u \u00fd \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3.<\/div>\n
Theo d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u01a1 quan kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, n\u0103m 2024 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0y n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m. Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c v\u01b0\u1ee3t ho\u1eb7c b\u1eb1ng n\u0103m 2023, x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra kh\u00f4ng cao. L\u00fd gi\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y, \u00f4ng L\u00e2m cho bi\u1ebft, do \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m nay El Nino t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 s\u1ebd nhanh ch\u00f3ng chuy\u1ec3n sang pha trung t\u00ednh n\u00ean t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n n\u0103m 2023.<\/div>\n
B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, hi\u1ec7n nay v\u1eabn \u0111ang trong m\u00f9a kh\u00f4 tr\u00ean ph\u1ea1m vi to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u1edf T\u00e2y Nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 Nam B\u1ed9.<\/div>\n
\u201cV\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 c\u00f2n t\u0103ng cao, \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ea9m th\u1ea5p, v\u1eabn c\u00f2n nguy c\u01a1 x\u1ea3y ra ch\u00e1y r\u1eebng tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng \u1edf c\u00e1c t\u1ec9nh v\u00f9ng n\u00fai, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t d\u1ecdc d\u1ea3i ph\u00eda T\u00e2y t\u1eeb khu v\u1ef1c T\u00e2y B\u1eafc B\u1ed9, B\u1eafc Trung B\u1ed9, Trung Trung B\u1ed9 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i xu\u1ed1ng T\u00e2y Nguy\u00ean<\/i>\u201d, Ph\u00f3 Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Trung t\u00e2m D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n qu\u1ed1c gia ph\u00e2n t\u00edch.<\/div>\n
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Ngo\u00e0i ra, Trung t\u00e2m D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ee7y v\u0103n qu\u1ed1c gia cho hay, n\u0103m nay x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n cao h\u01a1n trung b\u00ecnh nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m. C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n s\u00e2u nh\u1ea5t xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 08 \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 13 th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2024, x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp v\u00e0o s\u00e2u 40-66km, c\u00f3 n\u01a1i s\u00e2u h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0 t\u1ec9nh Ti\u1ec1n Giang v\u00e0 B\u1ebfn Tre v\u00e0o s\u00e2u 70-76km.<\/div>\n
\u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c B\u1ebfn Tre v\u00e0 s\u00f4ng C\u1ed5 Chi\u00ean x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n s\u00e2u h\u01a1n n\u0103m 2016. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c k\u00eanh r\u1ea1ch m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1ec9nh thu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ed3ng b\u1eb1ng s\u00f4ng C\u1eedu Long (\u0110BSCL) \u0111ang g\u1eb7p t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng kh\u00f4 c\u1ea1n.<\/div>\n
Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n g\u00e2y ra t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n, x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp m\u1eb7n t\u1ea1i \u0110BSCL tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft do \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng El Nino. T\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2024 \u0111\u1ebfn nay, khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng m\u01b0a (h\u1ee5t chu\u1ea9n 60-95%), ng\u00e0y n\u1eafng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i l\u00e0m cho m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eb7t t\u00edch tr\u1eef trong c\u00e1c ru\u1ed9ng, k\u00eanh, s\u00f4ng, h\u1ed3 b\u1ecb b\u1ed1c h\u01a1i.<\/div>\n
\u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ngu\u1ed3n n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1eeb th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n s\u00f4ng M\u00ea K\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 \u0110BSCL \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n trung b\u00ecnh nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 tri\u1ec1u c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1eb7n v\u00e0o s\u00e2u n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng.<\/div>\n
C\u01a1 quan kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, ng\u00e0y b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u m\u00f9a m\u01b0a t\u1ea1i Nam B\u1ed9 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ebfn mu\u1ed9n h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m, kho\u1ea3ng t\u1eeb tu\u1ea7n gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 5. Do v\u1eady, th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi, n\u1eafng n\u00f3ng gay g\u1eaft v\u1eabn x\u1ea3y ra t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n nhi\u1ec7t cao.<\/div>\n
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Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea5m l\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/b><\/div>\n
Kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam, ENSO c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n cho v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Chu k\u1ef3 El Nino th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean h\u01a1n khi\u1ebfn Tr\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea5t c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea5m l\u00ean l\u00e2u d\u00e0i.<\/div>\n
Theo nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 tr\u00ean t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed Scientific Reports, \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m nay, 90% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t trung b\u00ecnh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c trong n\u0103m. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01a1i s\u1ebd ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng n\u00f3ng n\u1ef1c h\u01a1n, c\u00f3 m\u00f9a h\u00e8 kh\u1eafc nghi\u1ec7t h\u01a1n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 khu v\u1ef1c \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1. S\u1ee9c n\u00f3ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n v\u00e0 ch\u00e1y r\u1eebng.<\/div>\n
Chu\u1ed7i s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u1ec1 ENSO \u0111\u00e3 ghi nh\u1eadn nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t El Nino si\u00eau m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o c\u00e1c n\u0103m 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, trong \u0111\u00f3 El Nino 2015-2016 l\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t. \u0110\u00e2y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn l\u00e0 n\u0103m c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 trung b\u00ecnh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u cao nh\u1ea5t trong chu\u1ed7i s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u quan tr\u1eafc.<\/div>\n
C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t La Nina m\u1ea1nh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c n\u0103m 1998-2000, 2007-2008, 2010-2011.<\/div>\n
Theo NOAA (C\u01a1 quan qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00ed h\u1eadu v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c gia M\u1ef9), vi\u1ec7c ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang \u1edf trong n\u0103m La Nina, n\u0103m El Nino hay kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i lo\u1ea1i th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft n\u00e0o trong hai lo\u1ea1i n\u00e0y (giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ENSO trung t\u00ednh), \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1edfi nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 m\u1eb7t n\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ec3n g\u1ea7n x\u00edch \u0111\u1ea1o tr\u00ean Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/div>\n
Trung b\u00ecnh, c\u1ee9 sau 2 – 7 n\u0103m, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t n\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ec3n \u1edf v\u00f9ng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1edbi Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1ea1i chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n El Nino v\u00e0 La Nina, r\u1ed3i t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng \u1edf giai \u0111o\u1ea1n trung t\u00ednh gi\u1eefa.<\/div>\n
Tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i ENSO \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a v\u00e0 ki\u1ec3u gi\u00f3 tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp v\u00f9ng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1edbi, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp theo t\u1ea7ng tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/div>\n
\u0110\u1ee3t El Nino m\u1ea1nh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2015-2016 tr\u00f9ng v\u1edbi n\u0103m n\u00f3ng k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c, g\u00e2y ra h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n, ch\u00e1y r\u1eebng, l\u0169 l\u1ee5t v\u00e0 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u1ec7 sinh th\u00e1i \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 v\u00f9ng.<\/div>\n
C\u00e1c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh t\u1eeb Li\u00ean h\u1ee3p qu\u1ed1c cho th\u1ea5y, giai \u0111o\u1ea1n El Nino n\u00e0y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a h\u01a1n 60 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi do thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf – x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i, di c\u01b0, b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh v\u00e0 m\u1ea5t an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c.<\/div>\n
Nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ph\u00e1 k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn ngay c\u1ea3 trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m La Nina, ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea5m l\u00ean l\u00e2u d\u00e0i do bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu g\u00e2y ra. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, n\u0103m La Nina 2022 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng l\u00e0 n\u0103m \u1ea5m th\u1ee9 5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn.<\/div>\n
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Trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai g\u1ea7n, m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 El Nino \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao, v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n v\u1ec1 kh\u00ed h\u1eadu b\u1eb1ng ho\u1eb7c l\u1edbn h\u01a1n n\u0103m 2016, v\u1edbi l\u0169 l\u1ee5t v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n lan r\u1ed9ng. C\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i kinh t\u1ebf to l\u1edbn v\u00e0 m\u1ea5t an ninh l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c.<\/div>\n
C\u00e1c nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u0169ng cho th\u1ea5y nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 m\u1eb7t n\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ec3n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i do El Nino g\u00e2y ra t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 10% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u0103m 1960 v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng El Nino c\u1ef1c \u0111oan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i trong th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y do b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t n\u00f3ng l\u00ean nhanh h\u01a1n \u1edf ph\u00eda \u0111\u00f4ng Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/div>\n
Ngo\u00e0i ra, chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb El Nino sang La Nina v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i c\u1ea3 th\u1eadp k\u1ef7.<\/div>\n
B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, d\u00f9 ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu, El Nino c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9p. C\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng cao v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng El Nino \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c v\u00e0 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra c\u00e1c di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c.\/.<\/div>\n
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(Ngu\u1ed3n tin: website B\u00e1o \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed baomoi.com<\/strong>)<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ENSO \u0111ang c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n d\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed9 v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 kh\u00ed h\u1eadu Vi\u1ec7t Nam. 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